Week ahead: mild start, rain for most by mid-week, then turning colder with snow possible

It continues rather mild across much of the UK through the second half of the weekend and into the start of the new week. Yesterday it was very mild across southern Britain, the highest temperature was 15.9C at Pershore, not far away from a date record. However, by next Saturday, highs could be a good 10C or more colder as winter bites back later next week.

After a mild start and mostly dry start to the coming week across England and Wales, it will turn increasingly unsettled across all parts by mid-week, with persistent heavy rain along a slow-moving cold front pestering western Scotland today and tomorrow moving southeast across most of the UK on Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions, cold in Scotland.

Then, later in the week and into next weekend, a battleground looks to develop across the UK between cold arctic air trying to push down from the north and mild air trying to spread north. Usually, the cold air tends to win out straight away, but a low moving east off the Atlantic somewhere over southern Britain looks to try to push mild air back in across the south. But as the low clears, the cold arctic air looks to win out by next weekend. There could be some snow during this transition to cold air.

Today

For now, the rain persisting across western Scotland today and tomorrow is the main story. A slow-moving cold front will bring persistent rain from now through until later on Monday here, the rain turning heavy tonight and spilling over into eastern Scotland too Monday morning before the rain eventually starts to clear southeast during the afternoon and evening. The Met Office have a yellow warning for rain for parts of western Scotland in force between 6pm today and 9pm on Monday

Some southern parts of the warning area may see a drier interlude for a time on Monday and there is some uncertainty as to how far north the rain gets. 40-75 mm of rain may fall quite widely in the warning area, but there is potential for 120-170 mm in the wettest areas, this perhaps most likely in parts of Argyll, Lochaber and Wester Ross

Elsewhere this afternoon, a blustery and generally overcast afternoon, cloud thick enough for some patchy drizzle in places, particularly over northern and western hills. It will be rather mild, though, particularly in the south, temperatures maxing out at 12-14C over England, Wales and N. Ireland; 8-11C across Scotland, though in the Shetland Isles, it's colder – only reaching 5C.

Tonight

Into tonight, England, Wales and N. Ireland will be mostly dry if generally cloudy, with some patchy drizzle still possible over northern and western hills. Wet night from the central belt northwards across Scotland, particularly wet across the western Highlands – where rain totals will become excessive and perhaps start leading to some flooding in places. Rain turning to snow across the far north of Scotland, as colder air undercuts from the north.

Monday

Persistent and heavy rain will continue across northern and western Scotland through Monday before finally clearing southeast into southern Scotland and N. Ireland through the evening. England and Wales generally cloudy, breezy and mild again, with patchy drizzle over western hills but most staying dry, some breaks in the east may allow some sunny spells. Temperatures widely reaching 10-13C, though cold across the far north of Scotland.

Tuesday & Wednesday

Band of rain slowly clearing south from southern Scotland and N. Ireland down across N. England and north Wales through the day, turning heavy and persistent for a time from the west, before the rain continues southeast to reach southern areas late evening, grey and mild with patchy drizzle ahead of the rain band in the south. Scotland and N. Ireland turning clearer, brighter and colder from the north, some wintry showers across far north of Scotland.

Rain clearing SE England Wednesday morning, then a cooler day for most with lighter winds, best of the sunshine in the north but also some wintry showers across northern Scotland, cloudier across the south, with some patchy rain returning across the southwest.

Thursday & Friday

Some uncertainty for the second half of the week, but it looks like turning wet and windy on Thursday, as an area of low pressure moves in off the Atlantic, but the rain turning to snow over central and/or northern areas, as it bumps into colder air moving south. This rain/snow boundary may move further south or north, so we’ll keep you updated. Rain, sleet and snow clearing east Friday morning before more rain with another low perhaps spreads in from the southwest, turning to snow on its northern edge, but again uncertainty how far north. Potential for some wintry weather later in the week, especially over hills in the north, but not exclusively.